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Just two months ago that the young forward was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager admonished him over not reading a pass in behind. During that period, with the team failed to win in six, the question was whether his performances were an indicator or a cause of Villa's broader struggles.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

This weekend, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. When Rogers curled home his second strike to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The team continued to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their opening six fixtures, now sit only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?

That’s a particularly tough proposition to answer. The historical record, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding this season, despite the fact the wins have accumulated.

According to the data, twice all season have Villa posted an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a side that have strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa appear weirdly vulnerable – however currently the fine lines are swinging for them.

The Winning Formula

The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with rivals and then rely on their star man to bail them out with some clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and it happened versus the Red Devils.

His opener originated from a brilliant finish, arced just inside the upright from a wide position. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Logic says not. Against United, the opposition managed more shots and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those games.

Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival they must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, surely, cannot keep on drilling the football into the top corner week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Could it be a different scenario in which, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players could still return to peak condition.

• The main striker may begin to scoring again.
• The winger might become the performer he was at Borussia Dortmund.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, fortifying a sometimes shaky defensive unit.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.

Savoring the Moment

Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, nobody thought the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a title charge and appearing as a crucial England player.

The current run is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. As Rogers faced the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and must be appreciated.